The world’s largest diamond producer expects the cost of rough stones to rise to 180 dollars per carat in the coming years. The reason is a reduction in supply amid a recovery in demand. According to the company’s estimates, prices will have to rise at least 1.5 times to return to the traditional sales volume of $14 billion a year.
Sergei Takhiev, head of Alrosa’s corporate finance department, explained that in normal years the global market for uncut diamonds amounts to 14 billion dollars, but in 2025 sales will drop to 9.5 billion dollars. At the same time, production and reserves are declining, which means that the only way to bring revenue back to the previous level is to increase the price.
As early as the end of 2026, experts do not rule out a shortage of rough and polished diamonds. The stockpiles are gradually melting, and no new large deposits are being discovered. This creates prerequisites for a price spike.
In January, Alrosa raised prices for about 50% of its assortment. Large stones rose in price the most – by 6-9%. The impetus was the steady demand for jewelry in the U.S. and India, as well as logistical difficulties that limit the inflow of alternative raw materials.
“Alrosa is preparing for a period of high prices and possible shortages. Whether the company will be able to take advantage of this environment depends on the outcome of today’s managerial choices and its ability to increase sales in a tight market.
Source: @nerzhavey
