At least a quarter of energy storage developers, investors, and mining companies believe that sharp swings in critical mineral prices are getting in the way of launching projects. This is stated in a new DLA Piper report based on a survey of 550 market participants. 23% of respondents said viable projects had to be postponed or canceled because of unpredictable prices amid tariffs, wars, and geopolitical tension.
Another 12% named price volatility as a factor that kills a project’s development outright. Alex Jones, DLA Piper’s natural resources partner, described the situation as a chain reaction: unpredictable prices reduce investor confidence, restrict financing and deal structuring, and ultimately lead to delays, repricing, and project abandonment.
The main obstacle to investment is reluctance to commit capital when future commodity prices are too uncertain. More than half of respondents call volatility a serious constraint on mining or processing. Among them, 28% were unable to secure bankable long-term offtake contracts, 27% postponed investment decisions, and 26% faced a higher cost of capital.
The impact depends on the region. In the UK and the US, participants feel it most strongly: 16% and 18% respectively named volatility as a factor stopping a project. Germany presents a different picture: it is the only market where no one considers price swings a critical barrier, and only 8% see them as a serious problem. In Australia, volatility is seen as one of many significant factors rather than the main obstacle.
Developers are increasingly choosing vertical integration to reduce dependence on unstable markets and on price benchmarks influenced by China. At least 37% of developers and 32% of raw material producers apply this strategy. It allows them to control more stages, from mining and processing to production and recycling.
Companies are also rethinking pricing principles. 37% of participants believe that pricing tied to components works better than pricing tied to spot commodity quotes. Among producers, 48% lean toward long-term fixed prices with periodic reviews.
The report shows that the critical minerals market is moving from playing spot prices to contracts that reflect the strategic value of supply. For investors, this is a signal: a project’s resilience now matters more than the current quote, and regions with clear rules and proximity to supply chains will have an advantage in attracting capital.
Source: DLA Piper
