The oil market shock triggered by the conflict in the Middle East spread unevenly across the world. While gasoline and diesel prices surged in some countries, they barely moved in others. The difference came down to the structure of national fuel markets and the willingness of governments to shield consumers from rising energy costs.
On February 28, military hostilities disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and gas trade. Crude oil prices briefly approached $150 per barrel before retreating. Even after oil prices eased, however, gasoline and diesel remained about 30% more expensive than before the conflict. Diesel and jet fuel saw the sharpest increases due to reduced supplies of heavy Middle Eastern crude, which yields larger volumes of these refined products.
The impact at the pump varied widely. In advanced economies, retail fuel prices generally track wholesale markets more closely than in developing countries, where subsidies and price controls are common. Yet even among developed economies, governments responded very differently.
The United States experienced one of the fastest and most complete pass-throughs of higher oil prices to consumers. With relatively low fuel taxes, U.S. retail gasoline and diesel prices have historically reflected about 97% of movements in wholesale markets. Because Washington introduced no broad fuel subsidies after the conflict began, prices at American filling stations had climbed by roughly 50% by mid-May.
Japan took the opposite approach. In March, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government allocated ¥800 billion to subsidize wholesale fuel suppliers. As a result, gasoline prices remained close to ¥169.5 per liter throughout the spring, staying below the government’s promised ceiling of ¥170 per liter. Although global oil prices in U.S. dollar terms approached their 2022 highs, Japanese motorists paid roughly the same prices as they had then, with government support offsetting the impact of the weaker yen.
Europe fell somewhere in between. On average, retail fuel prices across the continent reflected about 90% of changes in global oil markets. Fuel taxes remain roughly three times higher than those in the United States, but their structure still links pump prices to wholesale costs. At the same time, the strengthening of the euro against the U.S. dollar helped soften the impact of higher crude prices.
Government support measures also differed across Europe. Germany, Italy, and Spain temporarily reduced fuel excise taxes, while France and the United Kingdom left tax rates unchanged. In France, energy company TotalEnergies voluntarily froze prices at approximately 3,300 service stations. Overall, fuel tax reductions covered around 55% of gasoline and 63% of diesel consumption across Europe, lowering retail prices by roughly 10%. In practice, however, that translated into only about 3% of pre-war retail fuel prices—far too little to offset the broader increase in energy costs.
The Middle East conflict demonstrated a simple reality: the price drivers pay at the nearest fuel station depends less on global oil prices than on whether their government is willing to use public funds to cushion the shock—or instead allow market forces to pass the full cost on to consumers.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Image: AI-generated
