Swiss commodity giant Glencore decided not to wait for its partners. After merger talks with Rio Tinto failed in February, the company announced an independent move towards leadership on the copper market. In a move that would have created the world’s largest mining corporation, Glencore also agreed to sell a 40% stake in its flagship copper and cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo to the US Orion Critical Mineral Consortium. Analysts call it a conscious portfolio realignment toward the metals of the future while maintaining financial flexibility.
The company confirmed plans to increase copper production to one million tons per year by 2028, and to 1.6 million tons by 2035. Growth is planned to be achieved through low-cost projects and efficiency gains at existing mines, including the Congolese Katanga complex, where a new land access agreement with state-owned Gécamines will allow production to reach around 300,000 tonnes a year and extend the life of the mine.
However, the indicators for 2025 were mixed. Glencore produced 851.6 thousand tons of copper – 11% less than a year earlier. The reason is a decrease in metal content in the ore and a drop in recovery at key sites, including Collahuasi, Antamina and Mount Isa. However, in the second half of the year, output increased by almost half compared to the first due to improved quality of raw materials. Zinc production increased by 7% (to 969.4 thousand tons), while nickel and cobalt decreased due to export restrictions in the Congo.
At the same time, Glencore is restructuring its portfolio: it acquired the Quechua copper project in Peru and got rid of the Pasar smelter and Puerto Nuevo coal terminal. This indicates a shift towards high-margin products associated with the energy transition. At the same time, the company faces legal risks, social protests and pressure from resource nationalism in key countries where it operates. Weak nickel prices have already led to the suspension of production in New Caledonia.
For 2026, Glencore forecasts copper output in the range of 810-870 thousand tons, zinc – 700-740 thousand tons, thermal coal – up to 100 million tons. A forecast for cobalt was not given due to uncertainty with export quotas to the Congo.
Glencore chooses the path of organic growth and targeted transactions, betting on deficiency of critical mineralswhich will inevitably expand. The company intends to become the dominant copper producer without the help of mega-mergers, relying on its own assets and operational efficiencies.
Source: mining.com
Image: Glencore
