A new study shows that the speed global warming has grown more in the last decade than in any period since 1880. An analysis published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters states that the rate of global temperature rise has nearly doubled since 2015. However, not all experts agree with these conclusions.
The authors of the work, climatologists Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Grant Foster, used a statistical method to separate the anthropogenic signal from natural noise. They removed from the data the influence of natural factors – El Niño cycles, volcanic eruptions and fluctuations in solar activity. After such cleaning, the picture became clear: if in the period from 1970 to 2015 the temperature rose by an average of 0.18 degrees Celsius per decade, then over the past 10 years this figure has jumped to 0.35 degrees.
Rahmstorf emphasizes that the acceleration means that the threshold of 1.5 degrees of warming relative to pre-industrial levels will be passed sooner than expected. According to their calculations, this could happen by 2030. The reliability of the results, according to the scientist, is 98% and is confirmed by five independent temperature databases, including NASA and NOAA.
However, there is no unity in the scientific community. Zeke Housefader of Berkeley Earth acknowledges that acceleration is visible, but doubts that it can be fully explained by man-made factors. Part of the observed spike may be due to natural climate variability, which models are not yet able to accurately account for.
Statistician Robert Lund of the University of California, Santa Cruz, is more skeptical. He co-authored a 2024 paper that argued that sharpwarming rate not yet statistically confirmed. In his opinion, Rahmstorff and Foster’s analysis does not take into account the uncertainties associated with the same El Niño factors, and therefore the conclusions are premature.
Despite the disagreements, all experts agree on the main thing: the planet is steadily approaching the critical thresholds established by the Paris Agreement. The latest UN emissions gap report confirms the world is likely to exceed the 1.5 degree mark within the next decade, meaning the number of people suffering from extreme heat could double.
Rahmstorf sees his research as not just a scientific result, but also a warning. We need to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources much faster than is currently happening. There is no other way.
Source: Live Science
Image: Pierre Crom
