November brought price increases for most colored metals, contrary to the general trend, only nickel continues to fall in price. Analysts explain the situation by global factors and give forecasts for the near future that are important for investors and businesses.
The past month has strengthened the position of key non-ferrous metals on world exchanges. Almost all major positions showed strong growth, which contrasts with the continued decline in nickel prices. The price for this metal dropped to 14.682 thousand dollars per ton. The main reason is overproduction caused by a massive increase in production in Indonesia.
At the same time, copper showed an increase of almost 1%, reaching the level of 10.8 thousand dollars, and in early December it completely overcame the psychological barrier of 11 thousand dollars. Aluminum rose in price by 1.3%, and zinc added 1.2%. Experts see the reasons for this growth in a complex of factors.
According to Natalya Velichko, head of the Kept practice, the market is affected by a decrease in production volumes at existing deposits, depletion of readily available reserves and rising costs of launching new projects. A significant role is also played by the increased interest of investors who, in conditions of economic instability, are looking for reliable assets for investment. The forecast for copper is optimistic: in the coming year its price most likely will not fall below 10 thousand dollars. And if the US introduces new tariffs, the price could soar to 15 thousand. Any disruption at large mines will only accelerate this growth.
The situation with aluminum has its own characteristics. Despite the supply surplus, prices are supported by environmental restrictions in China, the largest producer. The introduction of limits on energy consumption and emissions, as well as fines for excessive energy consumption, create a solid foundation for stable metal prices.
Thus, the non-ferrous metals market is showing multidirectional movements. While copper, aluminum and zinc are supported by structural deficits and the green agenda, nickel suffers from oversupply. Investors should pay attention to these fundamental trends. Global macroeconomic programs, such as quantitative easing, create a general inflationary background, which prevents a collapse in prices and contributes to their smooth growth in the medium term.
Source: @dprom
