Industry experts are sounding the alarm: a decade of insufficient investment in exploration and new mine development has pushed gold production into stagnation. Global output has been stuck at 3,600–3,700 tonnes per year since 2017, and meaningful growth is not expected until 2028–2030 — a gap that could trigger a fresh surge in metal prices.
Between 2014 and 2020, major gold producers sharply cut capital expenditure. With prices ranging from $1,200 to $2,000 per ounce, many companies were operating near the break-even point, while investors pushed for dividends rather than new project funding. Capital was directed mainly at maintaining or expanding existing mines rather than exploring and developing new ones. As a result, the industry fell behind, and investment only began to recover in 2023.
The problem is that the development cycle for a new deposit — from exploration to first production — takes five to seven years. Any real increase in output should therefore be expected around 2028–2030. S&P Global analysts do forecast a 7% production increase as early as 2026, but that growth is likely to come from higher throughput at existing facilities rather than from new mines coming online.
The paradox is that high gold prices — which hit all-time highs in 2025 — have already caused a sharp drop in physical demand from the jewelry industry. According to industry sources, demand fell to a five-year low of 1,542 tonnes, down 18% year on year. In key Asian markets the decline was even steeper, reaching 25%. Both consumers and jewelry retailers are choosing to sell existing stockpiles rather than buy new gold at record prices.
In the coming years, a large volume of secondary gold could enter the market as holders begin liquidating their reserves. This will temporarily ease the supply shortfall, but will not resolve the underlying problem of insufficient new deposits.
The gold mining industry finds itself in a trap: old mines are being depleted, new ones are not being brought into production, and the investment cycle is too long. The price surge that should have stimulated exploration has instead suppressed demand. A turning point is unlikely before the end of the decade, when projects launched in 2023–2024 begin to bear fruit. Until then, the market will remain under pressure, and every price spike will trigger not a rise in output but a sell-off of reserves.
Source: S&P Global
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