In 2024, the global nickel market will face a record surplus – surplus metal will increase by 11%, reaching 198 thousand tons. This will lead to lower prices, but analysts are confident that for large producers such as Norilsk Nickel, the situation will remain stable.
According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), nickel production will increase by 6% this year to 3.74 million tons. Demand will also increase by 6%, to 3.54 million tons, but the gap between production and consumption will continue to widen. The main driver of demand is the production of stainless steel.
The growth leaders are Indonesia and China. Indonesia is increasing the production of nickel-containing pig iron, and China is increasing the production of nickel cathode and nickel sulfate.
Russia occupies about 9% of the world nickel market. Key player – Norilsk Nickel, which last year reduced production by 2%, to 205 thousand tons. The company explained this by planned repairs and low prices. In 2024, Norilsk Nickel plans to produce 204–211 thousand tons of metal.
Despite the predicted drop in prices due to an oversupply of nickel, analysts believe that the level will remain acceptable for the Russian giant.
The nickel market will experience a growing surplus, but large producers will be able to adapt. The main factors are the dynamics of demand for stainless steel and the development of production in Asia.
Source: @nerzhavey
