Russia’s diamond industry has recorded the world’s sharpest decline in production as part of efforts to stabilize the market. A reduction of more than 15% has already produced visible results, with prices for large diamonds rising steadily. However, analysts warn that the strategy could be undermined by De Beers, whose recent sales policy may disrupt the fragile market balance.
In 2025, Russia reduced diamond production by 15.5%, to 31.5 million carats. Although the country remained the world’s largest diamond producer, its share of global output declined from 35% to 32%. Diamond exports fell by approximately 2% in volume to 29.8 million carats, while export revenue decreased by 3% to $2.5 billion.
The average price of Russian diamonds slipped by 1.3% to $85.20 per carat, roughly 11% below the global average. Nevertheless, Russia’s share of global diamond export value increased from 9% to 10%, as worldwide diamond sales declined by 15.7%.
Russia was not alone in cutting production. Botswana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also reduced output, while Angola and Canada increased production. Overall, global diamond production fell by 8.4% to 98.8 million carats.
ALROSA, which accounts for more than 90% of Russia’s diamond production, says the production cuts have helped stabilize prices, particularly for rare and large stones. According to the company, the strongest price gains have been recorded for diamonds weighing 5 carats and above. Prices in this category have increased by an average of 2–3% per month since the beginning of the year, resulting in cumulative growth of approximately 8–9%. ALROSA also expects demand for medium-sized diamonds to improve during the third quarter.
Market analysts, however, remain more cautious. Research published by T-Investments and Alfa Investments points to weak consumer demand and increasing competition from laboratory-grown diamonds. Their main concern is De Beers, which increased first-quarter 2026 sales by 64% year-on-year to 7.7 million carats, largely by discounting smaller diamonds. Analysts argue that this strategy is adding pressure to an already fragile supply-demand balance.
Nikanor Khalin, senior analyst at Euler, expects Russian diamond production to decline by another 15% this year, accompanied by lower prices for ALROSA’s products. A market recovery could begin in 2027, provided demand improves, potentially allowing production to grow by more than 10%.
For now, Russia’s production cuts appear to be supporting prices for larger diamonds. But as long as De Beers continues supplying the market with discounted smaller stones, the sustainability of the recovery remains uncertain.
Source: Kommersant
Image: Dmitry Korotaev
