The head of the world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco, warned of a real threat of oil shortages in the future. The main reason is the long-term decline in investment in the search for new deposits, which calls into question the stability of the global energy market.
Experts are sounding the alarm: the global oil industry has been underfunded for decades geological exploration. This happened due to the past price collapse, as well as pressure from investors who demanded high dividends from companies instead of investing in long-term and expensive projects. As a result, oil workers focused on quick and cheap production from already known reserves, postponing the search for new ones.
The paradox is that oil demand continues to grow steadily. The transition to renewable energy is slower than expected, and the global economy needs more and more fuel. The gap between growing needs and dwindling supplies without new discoveries can become critical.
According to analysts at Rystad Energy, by 2040 the oil shortage could reach 10 million barrels per day – this is a huge amount. The problem is aggravated by the long lead times for project implementation: 5-7 years pass from the discovery of a field to the start of production. And the number of large projects approved for launch today is at a record low.
There are also no great hopes for rapid growth in shale oil production, as there has been in the last 15 years. Its performance is expected to stabilize and then begin to decline. This deprives the market of an important shock absorber.
To avoid a crisis, it is urgent to increase investment in geological exploration. Saudi Aramco already does this, dedicating $1-2 billion annually to finding new reserves as a strategic priority. The stability of fuel prices in the future depends on the decisions made in the industry today.
Source: geonews.ru
