Growing demand for critical minerals, rising project investment, and government support are creating a window of opportunity for Canada. According to BMO Global Metals & Mining, the country could capture a larger share of global capital flowing into the sector, from mining to processing. Ahead of the Canadian Investment Summit, the bank presented an analysis outlining where the country’s growth potential lies.
Canada is already a global resource leader: first in potash, second in uranium, and fourth in gold and aluminum. It also has deep industry expertise and regulators increasingly focused on developing the sector domestically. In BMO analysts’ view, the foundation for further expansion is already in place.
Corporate investment plans are moving back into growth mode. For 2025, Natural Resources Canada listed approximately C$120 billion in major projects in its 10-year project inventory. That is C$50 billion more than the 2018 forecast, but still well below the peak of the previous cycle, when the equivalent of around C$220 billion in today’s money was involved. That gap leaves room for further investment.
BMO expects annual capital spending on project development in Canada to grow by more than 11% over the next two years. Companies covered by the bank are expected to spend around C$350 billion over five years on operating costs, sustaining capital, and new projects.
The analysts’ main focus is the shift in investment from mining toward processing. To build more complete domestic supply chains, Canada needs investment in copper smelting and refining, recovery of by-product metals, battery materials, rare earth separation, and other downstream stages. That would strengthen Canada’s position as governments seek reliable mineral supplies for energy, defense, and advanced manufacturing.
BMO also highlights infrastructure as a key factor. Separating investment in roads, power infrastructure, and mining operations themselves could attract specialized funds, lower the cost of capital, and channel more financing into production. Canadian pension funds manage around $4.5 trillion in assets, yet invest less domestically than they potentially could. Narrowing that gap could provide both competitive returns and financing for new mining regions.
The opportunity BMO identifies goes beyond financing individual mines. It is about building complete domestic value chains, from mine to finished material. If government, regulators, and investors coordinate effectively, Canada could turn its resource potential into a resilient industrial system.
Source: MINING.COM
Image: BMO Capital Markets, Natural Resources Canada
