Wood Mackenzie experts presented a forecast for 2026 for the global metals and mining market. The key factors will be geopolitics, investor caution and adaptation to the energy transition.
Research company Wood Mackenzie has identified the main trends that will determine development of the mining industry in 2026. The main impact will be from political instability and restrained investment policies of companies.
According to the forecast, the overall economic situation will depend on two key players: China and the United States. China’s new five-year plan is expected to shift the focus from infrastructure growth to stimulating consumer demand. This decision will directly affect global commodity markets. In the US, midterm elections will be a factor of uncertainty, which could complicate tax policy and trade relations with China.
Despite political difficulties, the energy transition process continues, although it has slowed down. Wood Mackenzie notes that the development of renewable energy remains critical to energy security. Also expected in 2026 technological breakthroughs, which will change the demand for raw materials for batteries. For example, the approaching commercial use of solid-state batteries and the growing influence of artificial intelligence on energy consumption.
On the demand side, copper will remain strong due to persistent supply disruptions. At the same time, most other metals markets will face oversupply, which will keep prices down. Gold and silver will remain in demand as protective assets.
The investment climate in the industry will remain cautious. Large companies will prefer to buy back shares and look for merger opportunities rather than invest in new risky projects. This is facilitated by competition with Chinese companies, which have government support and higher risk tolerance.
Another challenge will be the growth of resource nationalism. Countries rich in resources are becoming more selective in choosing partners for the development of deposits, which extends the time frame for project implementation.
2026 will be a period of adaptation for the mining industry to a new reality. The success of companies will depend on the ability to respond flexibly to political risks, manage capital in a disciplined manner, and meet the changing demands of the energy transition.
Source: MINING.COM
