Norilsk Nickel analysts presented a review in which they point to a growing imbalance in key commodity markets. In the next two years, the global industry may face a supply shortage of palladium and platinum, and from 2026 the market expects a similar scenario copper. The only exception will be nickel, where overproduction will remain.
The situation in the precious metals markets is of particular concern. According to the company, as early as 2025 the platinum market will face a deficit of about 300 thousand ounces. If we add investor activity to this, the gap between supply and demand could increase to 400 thousand ounces. A similar picture is expected in 2026. Palladium, according to the base case scenario, will be close to balance, but investment demand could shift the balance and create a deficit of 200 thousand ounces in 2025.
The forecast for copper looks more restrained, but no less significant. This year, according to Norilsk Nickel’s calculations, the supply of copper will slightly exceed demand. However, already in 2026 the trend will change: consumption will accelerate, and the market will move into a state of structural deficit. Demand could reach 28.4 million tons, and supply – only 28.3 million tons. The company attributes this to a slowdown in the commissioning of new projects, a decrease in investments in geological exploration and general risks of shortages of raw materials.
Global trends will also put pressure on the copper market. Rising energy consumption, development of electric transport, green energy transition programs and digitalization of industry all require huge amounts of copper and create sustainable long-term demand.
At the same time, the nickel market is showing the opposite dynamics. In 2025-2026, there will continue to be an excess of supply, which experts estimate at approximately 200 thousand tons annually. The main reason is Indonesia’s rapid production growth, which continues to put pressure on global prices and balance sheets.
In conclusion, it can be noted that Norilsk Nickel’s forecasts indicate important shifts in the commodity sector. Shortages of key industrial metals could impact supply chains and the cost of end products, from electronics to cars. Investors and industry companies should consider these trends when planning their activities.
Source: @dprom
