Western analysts are predicting a serious decline in the Russian oil sector. According to Reuters, in April 2026, the extraction of liquid hydrocarbons in Russia will decrease by 300-400 thousand barrels per day compared to the average level at the beginning of the year. If this happens, the fall will be the largest since 2020, when the pandemic brought down global fuel demand.
The main reason is damage to key export infrastructure. As a result of the attacks, marine terminals in Ust-Luga and Tuapse were disabled. In addition, the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which raw materials went to Hungary and Slovakia, is still not working. These disruptions physically limit the ability to ship oil to foreign markets.
According to the latest OPEC data, Russian oil workers in recent months mined about 9.17 million barrels per day. Thus, there were still a little more than 400 thousand barrels left before the maximum allowed by the cartel. However, now this reserve capacity may be unused due to a logistics collapse.
The situation is aggravated by the complete closure of official statistics. Since 2022, customs authorities have stopped publishing data on oil exports and imports. In the spring of 2023, Rosstat stopped disclosing production figures – the corresponding law allowed the government to classify any state statistics. In May 2024, data on gasoline production was also banned. The Ministry of Energy explained this by the need to “prevent market manipulation by unscrupulous participants.” The latest information that Rosstat published was data for the beginning of summer 2024. Since then, any figures about the state of the oil industry have come only from the lips of officials.
Thus, the Reuters forecast is based on indirect signs and satellite images. However, if the decline is confirmed, it will mean not only a loss of export revenue, but also a serious test for the entire Russian oil industry.
Source: Reuters
