UK scientists have found that the climate footprint of the petrochemical industry is highly uneven. Roughly one in ten plants is responsible for 53% of all industry emissions. If clean technologies are deployed at these facilities first, an additional 23 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent could be avoided by 2050, compared to upgrading all capacity evenly.
The petrochemical industry produces nearly a billion tonnes of products annually — from plastics and fertilizers to synthetic fibers and solvents. Production volumes have grown roughly sixfold since 1980. Today, the industry consumes about 30% of industrial energy, 14% of the world’s oil, and 9% of natural gas, with its contribution to global emissions estimated at 3.5%.
To understand where these emissions originate, researchers built a global model covering nearly 37,400 facilities, 81 types of bulk chemical products, and more than 2,000 production processes. For each plant, the model accounted not only for the production footprint itself but also for the carbon footprint of feedstock and energy — from resource extraction through to the finished product.
According to the estimates, global petrochemicals generated about two billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2023. If nothing changes, that figure will reach 2.3 billion tonnes by 2030 and three billion tonnes annually by 2050. The largest emission sources are ethylene and ammonia, contributing about 290 million and 250 million tonnes respectively.
A significant portion of the footprint forms before the product is even manufactured. According to 2020 data, about 45% of emissions came from electricity and other energy generation, with another 34% from raw material extraction and preparation. Carbon dioxide accounts for 74% of the climate impact, methane for 15%, and nitrous oxide for 11%. Methane is emitted in smaller volumes but contributes about a third of the impact on a twenty-year horizon.
A striking example is adipic acid, used in nylon production. About 97% of plants producing this substance rank among the top 10% of largest emitters. The reason lies in the large volumes of nitrous oxide released during synthesis. Existing catalysts can cut these emissions by roughly 90%.
The researchers modeled several scenarios through 2050: electrification, carbon capture and storage, replacing fossil feedstock with biomass, and reducing demand for petrochemical products. No universal solution emerged. Ammonia and methanol are typically produced at standalone sites, where switching feedstock is easier. Ethylene and aromatic hydrocarbons, by contrast, are embedded in large complexes with shared energy systems and byproduct streams, so replacing one technology there requires restructuring several interconnected production units.
Electrification is no panacea either: the outcome depends on how the electricity is generated. In regions with a high share of fossil fuels, switching equipment to electric power could even increase emissions in the short term. Biomass is constrained by land resources and risks intensifying competition with food production.
Even the most optimistic scenario — combining deep energy decarbonization, full deployment of carbon capture, and a shift to bio-based feedstock — doesn’t bring petrochemical emissions to zero by 2050. The researchers’ conclusion is simple: technology must be combined with demand reduction, and efforts should start with the plants that generate the largest footprint.
Source: Global Energy Association
Image: Global Energy Association
